Updated Colorado State Outlook Continues to Call for a Busy Tropical Season. | LCRA Updated Colorado State Outlook Continues to Call for a Busy Tropical Season. | LCRA


Forecasts continue to point toward a very active hurricane season this year.  On Tuesday, Phil Klotzabach and his forecast team at Colorado State University issued an updated outlook for the hurricane season.

Klotzbach’s forecast discussion noted  “sea surface temperatures averaged across the eastern and central tropical Pacific are slightly cooler than average, and it appears likely that there will be either cool neutral ENSO or weak La Niña conditions during the remainder of the summer extending into the fall.  The tropical Atlantic is somewhat warmer than normal, while the subtropical Atlantic is quite warm.  Most of the eastern Atlantic is warmer than normal, and anomalously warm temperatures in this region in June have been typically associated with more active Atlantic hurricane seasons”.

The updated outlook, calls for a season total of 20 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.  The long term average is 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.

Keep in mind we have already had 5 named storms so far this year, thus an additional 15 named storms are forecast.

National Hurricane Center forecasters are currently monitoring a broad area of low pressure located near the coast of northeastern South Carolina.  This system continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the adjacent Atlantic waters and portions of eastern North Carolina.  The low is expected to move northeastward near or just offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks on Thursday, and then turn north-northeastward and move along the mid-Atlantic coast Friday.  Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or

subtropical cyclone is likely to form within the next day or so.  Regardless of development, the system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause some flash flooding across portions of eastern North Carolina, the coastal mid-Atlantic, and southern New England during the next few days.  NHC forecasters are giving this system a 70 percent chance for tropical development over the next 5 days.

Bob